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The Wealth Mindset Show
2026 Market Predictions & Economic Forecast
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What will 2026 mean for the economy, the markets, and your investments? In this episode, Austin and Josh break down their 2026 market predictions, including interest rates, inflation, volatility, AI and growth trends, and what may lie ahead for stocks, bonds, and other asset classes. They also explain how you should move going forward and how a solid financial plan matters more than any forecast. Tune in!
Read the full transcript, watch the video, and check out resources at thewealthmindsetshow.com/s2e29
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You're listening to The Wealth Mindset Show where Hixon Zuercher Capital Management's team of finance professionals, portfolio managers, and a life coach come together to tackle complex topics in finance and retirement planning, so you don't have to. From investment strategies and wealth management to tax planning, retirement income, and aligning your money with your values and purpose, The Wealth Mindset Show offers the tools to thrive.
Austin Wilson:
All right. Hey, hey, hey, welcome back to The Wealth Mindset Show where the Hixon Zuercher team helps you manage wealth, navigate retirement, and make smart decisions for a secure, meaningful future. I'm Austin Wilson-
Josh Robb:
Chief Investment Officer.
Austin Wilson:
... Chief Investment Officer... I did not...
Josh Robb:
New title.
Austin Wilson:
... for Hixon Zuercher Capital Management.
Josh Robb:
Well, that's all right because it's new to you.
Austin Wilson:
It is new.
Josh Robb:
It's new to you-
Austin Wilson:
Yeah.
Josh Robb:
... starting this year.
Austin Wilson:
It is.
Josh Robb:
And I'm Josh Rob, Director of Wealth Management at Hixon Zuercher Capital Management.
Austin Wilson:
Still.
Josh Robb:
Still there.
Austin Wilson:
Still there.
Josh Robb:
Still doing that.
Austin Wilson:
Same guy.
Josh Robb:
But yeah, that's a big announcement.
Austin Wilson:
Yeah.
Josh Robb:
I mean, we have now officially January 1st, 2026, is when it started, but you are a partner at Hixon Zuercher Capital Management with Tony and myself. So, we are glad to have you-
Austin Wilson:
Yeah, I'm excited.
Josh Robb:
... and we're looking forward to a lot of success in the future. So, that's one big news.
Austin Wilson:
Yeah.
Josh Robb:
How was Christmas, New Year's? We're on the other end of that now.
Austin Wilson:
New Year's, Christmas, it's all good. It's all for the kids. You do it for the kids. Kids have a lot of fun. Kids get a lot of stuff. We have a lot of generous people in their lives.
Josh Robb:
Yep.
Austin Wilson:
Minivan has been full multiple times of things that they didn't know they wanted or needed, but they got.
Josh Robb:
They have it.
Austin Wilson:
So, we're in the middle of purging, on the other side of that, to get rid of the old-
Josh Robb:
Clean.
Austin Wilson:
... stuff to bring in new stuff, but-
Josh Robb:
I save boxes so that the kids can-
Austin Wilson:
Absolutely.
Josh Robb:
... donate some things-
Austin Wilson:
Oh, yeah.
Josh Robb:
... and clear up a little bit.
Austin Wilson:
And now we're in the return a bunch of things that you bought and didn't need or all this other stuff phase. And I saw some statistics about how January is crazy for returns.
Josh Robb:
Oh, I bet.
Austin Wilson:
Actually, there are startups and apps that will help you return stuff.
Josh Robb:
Oh, nice.
Austin Wilson:
It's like their entire... It's like a subscription, I'm sure, or you pay a fee.
Josh Robb:
Yeah, to have them help you.
Austin Wilson:
For $3 to return your $20 item, they'll return it for you. I don't know. But anyway, so we're in the middle of all figuring that stuff. Stuff we bought in Columbus and didn't end up needing, whatever... do we have to drive back to Columbus to do a return? Nah, we'll sell it on Facebook Marketplace.
Josh Robb:
That works, too.
Austin Wilson:
But no, kids are good. Life is good. What about you?
Josh Robb:
Yeah. There's a new thing, and a couple of our kids had a version of it, but it's a... So, Malachi, my 11-year-old, he loves basketball. He loves whatever sport season he's in.
Austin Wilson:
Sports, yeah.
Josh Robb:
He's currently in basketball. So, if you've ever been home and had a kid dribbling a basketball in the house, it's no fun.
Austin Wilson:
No, sound rings everywhere.
Josh Robb:
After a while, it just get... So, they make these new things called silent basketballs.
Austin Wilson:
Okay, I like-
Josh Robb:
Silent basketballs, which are exactly what they sound like. It is, best I could describe it, a foam.
Austin Wilson:
Okay.
Josh Robb:
And when you dribble it, it bounces like a regular basketball does, for the most part. It's not the same weight, but it moves pretty close. Does not make that loud noise.
Austin Wilson:
That's awesome.
Josh Robb:
So, he can be in there and just dribble.
Austin Wilson:
Okay.
Josh Robb:
And it's softer, so he's not going to break things. So, he got that, and then a couple of my kids got silent volleyball. Same idea, is you could bounce it off an indoor wall and it won't scuff it or mark it.
Austin Wilson:
Nice.
Josh Robb:
It's softer and it's quiet. So, that helps with the noise, for sure.
Austin Wilson:
I would imagine so.
Josh Robb:
So, yeah, that was a big gift for one. And then, yeah, it's been hanging out. We all stayed healthy, relatively. Just small colds, but nothing big-
Austin Wilson:
That's good.
Josh Robb:
... which is always that break.
Austin Wilson:
Everything's been going around.
Josh Robb:
Yeah. Well, I guess at our kids' school, the week before Christmas in one of the kindergarten classes... So, let's say they have roughly 30 kids in their class, give or take. Four, that's how many kids were in the class, not out.
Austin Wilson:
That's the other side.
Josh Robb:
That's how many kids were in the class. So, thankfully, our kids stayed, like I said, relatively healthy through it all, so it was good.
Austin Wilson:
That's good.
Josh Robb:
Yeah.
Austin Wilson:
Well, we are here in 2026.
Josh Robb:
2026.
Austin Wilson:
'26. And if any of our listeners for a long time, remember, sometimes we do prediction episodes-
Josh Robb:
Yes.
Austin Wilson:
... where we say, here is what-
Josh Robb:
And we're wrong all the time.
Austin Wilson:
And we're wrong all the time, but here is what we think is going to happen in the next year.
Josh Robb:
Yes.
Austin Wilson:
So, here's what we're doing today. Josh and I have actually printed off... We've not done this on a-
Josh Robb:
And wrote it.
Austin Wilson:
We usually do this in a shared Apple Note with our iPads, so we know what each other is going to say, or we just know the points we're going to talk about. We have an outline, and then we had to make our own predictions and we're off-grid.
Josh Robb:
Secretly.
Austin Wilson:
So, we don't know what everyone's going to think, but we've got interest rate-
Josh Robb:
Yes.
Austin Wilson:
... predictions, we've got market predictions, we've got asset class predictions. All of these are going to be wrong. None of these are investment recommendations-
Josh Robb:
Yep, they're just-
Austin Wilson:
... because they're going to be wrong.
Josh Robb:
... our guesses in the future with, for me at least, no basis in my prediction.
Austin Wilson:
I would say there is more of a chance of these being wrong than right-
Josh Robb:
Yes.
Austin Wilson:
... on any given thing, but it's going to be fun.
Josh Robb:
Yes.
Austin Wilson:
And that's going to be interesting to see what everyone thinks on... And this is a great opportunity for you, as a listener. You see this episode on YouTube or Facebook or wherever you see it.
Josh Robb:
Or listen to it, yep.
Austin Wilson:
Comment some of these. Yeah, or comment on some of these things and see if you could put your predictions in, too, because that'd be kind of an interactive way.
But we're going to start with some big picture-
Josh Robb:
Yes.
[5:09] - Interest Rate Predictions
Austin Wilson:
... thoughts. So, this is 2026 overall, big picture, market themes. The biggest one, and this kind of shaped the way the market went in the fourth quarter, specifically, of 2025 was interest rates-
Josh Robb:
Yes.
Austin Wilson:
... and the Fed. So, Josh, what is going to happen in 2026 from the Fed?
Josh Robb:
All right. I wrote down one to two rate cuts-
Austin Wilson:
Okay.
Josh Robb:
... leaning towards two. That's what I wrote.
Austin Wilson:
That's your guess?
Josh Robb:
I think in which is kind of where the market is. That's-
Austin Wilson:
So, you went way out left field there.
Josh Robb:
... but I'm leaning towards that the Fed will do that second rate cut.
Austin Wilson:
Okay.
Josh Robb:
I'm in that camp.
Austin Wilson:
Well, I wrote down two cuts.
Josh Robb:
Oh, okay. Yeah-
Austin Wilson:
I think-
Josh Robb:
... you're all in.
Austin Wilson:
Well, I'm all in as and I can be right now.
Josh Robb:
Yes.
[5:51] - Inflation Predictions
Austin Wilson:
I think we're going to get two cuts. The market is, yeah, in between the one and two camp. The labor market weakening is certainly what they're focusing on the most right now, but inflation has been coming in relatively light. November inflation, the most recent one we got, 2.7%. That has a two in front of it. And shelter costs are coming down pretty drastically.
So, I think you're going to get two. And then maybe, and if things slow down, you might have more, but my base case is two cuts.
Josh Robb:
Two.
Austin Wilson:
If you look at overall interest rates, so this is think of like a treasury curve, I would say, and I'm going to get to this when we talk about fixed income, but we're going to have a steepened curve. So, the long end is going to continue to stay kind of where it is.
Josh Robb:
Okay, not much movement.
Austin Wilson:
Not a lot of movement. This is where the market is kind of having internal turmoil of, "Oh, is this debt load that we're facing sustainable?" and all this other stuff. The short end is where the Fed is happening. That's going to come down, so we're going to have a steepened curve. That's what I'm thinking overall.
That brings me to my next point is inflation, Josh.
Josh Robb:
Okay, and you said 2.7.
Austin Wilson:
2.7 was November. I actually think we're going to stay... And this is kind of counter to the market. A lot of the market is predicting that some of these tariff costs are going to creep through, through the first half of the year. I think we're going to make a slower grind in this upper two range, down to 2.5 by the end of the year.
Josh Robb:
2.5? Wow. Okay. I went the other direction.
Austin Wilson:
Okay.
Josh Robb:
I said 3.4, which-
Austin Wilson:
Woo.
Josh Robb:
... all year long until here, we were in like 3, 3.1.
Austin Wilson:
2.9, 3, 3.1.
Josh Robb:
Yeah, right in there. And I just think we're going to see it creep up, not like uncontrolled.
Austin Wilson:
Yep, slow.
Josh Robb:
It'd just be kind of this slow. And that's also with this rate cuts, two might just stimulate a little bit of that, again, that second one. So, three, four, not a bad-
Austin Wilson:
We'll just take an average and hopefully-
Josh Robb:
Yes.
Austin Wilson:
... land in the middle.
Josh Robb:
But guess what the long-term average is.
Austin Wilson:
Three.
Josh Robb:
Three and a half.
Austin Wilson:
Yeah?
Josh Robb:
So, I'm just hitting right along the long-term average.
Austin Wilson:
Yep, yep. So, here's the next one.
Josh Robb:
Markets, yes.
Austin Wilson:
This is the big one, markets. We've had a pretty good run, take away April.
Josh Robb:
Okay.
Austin Wilson:
April was its own thing.
Josh Robb:
Forget about April.
Austin Wilson:
It was a really rough April, and then not so bad, rough couple of weeks, really nice couple weeks. And actually, April was flat. I think there's a ish. But we had pretty much a bear market. Intraday, 20% bear market in April.
Josh Robb:
That was coming off all the tariffs and all the - Yep.
Austin Wilson:
Coming off all the tariff discussions, Liberation Day, but think about what we've had. We had '23. So, this is coming out of the 2022 bear market. '23 was very strong.
Josh Robb:
Yep.
Austin Wilson:
'24 was very strong.
Josh Robb:
Yep.
Austin Wilson:
'25 was... very strong-
Josh Robb:
Yes.
Austin Wilson:
... despite having a bear market-
Josh Robb:
Yes.
[8:20] - Potential Volatility in 2026
Austin Wilson:
... in the beginning of it. What does 2026 hold? My-
Josh Robb:
Yes, you go.
Austin Wilson:
... thought is volatility is to be expected. I think we will have a 10% correction for the S&P 500 at some point during the year. It just seems like where valuations are, where uncertainty is around the adoption rate and things for AI, I think we could have that in a couple. You could get that spooked from some earnings from some of these NVIDIAs of the world.
Josh Robb:
Yep.
Austin Wilson:
I think the Nasdaq is poised to probably correct 15 or more. And then the part of the market that has kind of been left behind probably will fare better. That's my opinion right now.
Josh Robb:
Less, yeah.
Austin Wilson:
So, I think correction in 2026. You?
Josh Robb:
I wrote, "Correction? Yes." And there's a chance we even get two, I think, because valuations are one piece, which you already talked about. The second one is we're heading into midterm election year.
Austin Wilson:
Oh, yeah.
Josh Robb:
So-
Austin Wilson:
Which typically is going to flip, probably.
Josh Robb:
Yep. So, you could get some volatility around the late summer, early fall period when you get all the different October surprise and all the fun stuff that happen in those large election years. So, there could even be a second one that's driven not so much from the market or fundamentals, but from-
Austin Wilson:
Uncertainty around that.
Josh Robb:
... uncertainty or expectations.
Austin Wilson:
We didn't even talk... It's not even in our list, but we should talk about midterms. And historically speaking-
Josh Robb:
Yes.
Austin Wilson:
... and this would be my base case, too, is that at least one, House or Senate-
Josh Robb:
Yep.
Austin Wilson:
... is probably going to flip back to the Democrats.
Josh Robb:
Right now-
Austin Wilson:
It's Republican across the world.
Josh Robb:
... they're all controlled by the Republicans, very close margins.
Austin Wilson:
Narrow margins.
Josh Robb:
Yes. You're right. The high probability is that one of those two will flip.
Austin Wilson:
And that's not an opinion. That's history, right?
Josh Robb:
Yep.
Austin Wilson:
History, that's typically what happens in midterms. I would not say that that would be unlikely, it seems like.
Josh Robb:
Yeah. Especially when the House and Senate are controlled by the presidential party, you usually see it flip midterm. Yep.
Austin Wilson:
So, tariffs, that's been a-
Josh Robb:
Yes. Yeah.
Austin Wilson:
... discussion early this year. Yeah, was like at the beginning of April was when the Liberation Day happened, and markets fell apart all the way to April 9th, which was the low. Tariffs had been the discussion. We've got some stability right now. We're bringing in actually a lot of tariff income, which is something that... It was interesting. I was hearing on the news the other day, they were actually saying like, it would be hard for a new administration in 2028 to turn off this because of how much... There is actually substantial billions of dollars, 200 and some billion dollars coming in from tariff revenue.
But anyway, we've got stability right now. There's at least deals with enough places that we're not flipping switches every single day on tariffs. The Supreme Court, thus far, has held up most of the tariffs, at this point.
I think that there will probably be some tariff discussion because that's just the way the president works right now, but it's not going to be the focus, but it's going to be certainly continuing out the rest of the year, but not the focus.
Josh Robb:
I said less tariffs, and I don't think it's going to be a massive change, but I do think there are maybe some court rulings that may adjust where and how much and how things are done. And I also think there may be some agreements that happen that help reduce some of that, but I agree with you in that I don't think they're going away. I just think there may be a little less by the end of the year.
Austin Wilson:
Yeah. So, the question I have for you, Josh, is what environment... So, think about-
Josh Robb:
Yes.
Austin Wilson:
... the macroeconomic environment we're in, maybe even the market environment we're in. So, what environment are we in? And how should you think about it when you're looking at long-term investing?
Josh Robb:
Yeah. So, long-term investing, yoreally ignore the noise of the short-term. I mean that good long-term investing doesn't care what happens in 2026. Those that do care, like if I'm making a big transition, retirement, those type of things, it matters a little more.
But I'm thinking a little bit slower growth, pretty steady inflation, maybe creeping up a little bit from mine. Yours is maybe staying right where it's at. Rates coming down from those cuts.
What does that mean? I think similar to what we saw the last couple of years, our economy is poised in this type of environment to do well. Anywhere inflation in the low threes, upper twos is good for our economy.
Austin Wilson:
As long as it's stable.
Josh Robb:
Yes, that's good. Rates are at a spot where we can grow, invest. Everything's poised to do well. I do think we will see some volatility in the market, which is normal. Every year you experience volatility like that.
So, what does that mean? If you have cash, you could wait for some sort of correction to put some more to work. If you've done that last couple of years, you've missed-
Austin Wilson:
You've missed a lot, yeah, there, right.
Josh Robb:
... a lot of growth waiting on those things. And then just be mindful that long-term money, don't try to time anything.
Austin Wilson:
No.
Josh Robb:
Short-term money, yeah, you could be a little more strategic about, "When do I take money out? When things are going well. When do I put money in? When things are down." But other than that, the long-term objective should not change.
Austin Wilson:
Correct. Yeah. I think, when I think of what environment we're in from a macroeconomic standpoint, it's like we're getting mixed signals. The labor market is certainly pointing more late cycle. We've got unemployment ticking up. A lot of that's we-
Josh Robb:
We didn't talk about that at all.
Austin Wilson:
We didn't either. We're at what? 4.6% unemployment, which is the highest it's been since 2021 or 2020, whenever we got out of COVID. So, it's the highest we've seen it at some time, but that's actually not necessarily from people losing their jobs as much as the labor market size changing. A lot of that's...
Josh Robb:
More retirees-
Austin Wilson:
More retirees.
Josh Robb:
... entering the market.
Austin Wilson:
And immigration changes have obviously changed a lot right now, so labor pool size is different. There are layoffs, of course, but that's not what's driving unemployment higher. It's labor pool size. So, I actually think the labor market is still weakening, still slowing, but it's better than a headline change would show.
Josh Robb:
Okay.
Austin Wilson:
But that's one area that feels more late cycle. So, the labor market feels late cycle, but there are certain areas that are certainly picking up speed. I think we could be turning a corner in manufacturing, and that has been down for a couple of years now. Well, that is being buoyed by things like AI investment, things like that. So, that's certainly seeming a little bit earlier cycle or at least mid-cycle. So, it's a mixed picture of what we're seeing.
Do we see a correction for the markets, potentially? But do we see a recession from an economic standpoint? I don't see that.
Josh Robb:
Few signals, yep.
Austin Wilson:
It seems very unlikely you'll get a recession. And one of the reasons for that is it's a bifurcated economy. It's a K-shaped economy. That's what everyone's talking about right now, but it's true. Those who are doing well are continuing to spend so much money that they are making up for the people that aren't making as much money and spending as much money. And the economy is not just staying afloat, but actually growing. And we just had third quarter GDP. The second revision came in way above all expectations.
Josh Robb:
Yeah, really blew those expectations.
Austin Wilson:
Blew those expectations out of the water. And I think price stability and stuff like that, as I said, is certainly going to help. Throw in a couple of rate cuts, and I think it could be... I'm not seeing any signs of a recession, but it's certainly, again, mixed signal on what we're looking at there.
And as far as market cycles go, it's hard to say early cycle-
Josh Robb:
Far into it.
Austin Wilson:
... when you've had a bull market coming out of 2020... or 2022, I guess, for that matter, coming out of the 2022 bear market lows. So, you're on the third full year of a really good run.
Josh Robb:
Yeah.
Austin Wilson:
And markets are stretched, and multiples are elevated. However, a lot of these things are not showing signs of slowing down. And in fact, people like to freak out about multiples, and I'm one who looks at multiple all the time. The market is actually trading-
Josh Robb:
Do you look at them multiple times?
Austin Wilson:
Multiple times.
Josh Robb:
Yes.
Austin Wilson:
The market's trading at similar multiples and, in some cases, cheaper than it was a year ago. And yet the markets was 18% or higher on a total return basis in 2025. So, where did that come from? Earnings growth.
Josh Robb:
Yep.
Austin Wilson:
It was not multiple-
Josh Robb:
And that's the best place to grow is earnings growth.
Austin Wilson:
Yeah, and that's what drives stocks over the long term.
Josh Robb:
Yes.
Austin Wilson:
It was not multiples and multiple expansion that drove the market higher in 2025. It was earnings growth. That's a sustainable year.
Do you get that in 2026? You have to have the earnings growth because where multiples are, you really can't go much higher without having the earnings growth accompany it. And that's where the uncertainty is right now.
Josh Robb:
Yep.
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[17:30] - Market Theme Predictions: AI, Innovation, Growth
Austin Wilson:
So let's talk about themes.
Josh Robb:
Yes.
Austin Wilson:
Themes for 2026, so AI has been the big thing.
Josh Robb:
You mentioned that. Yes.
Austin Wilson:
Coming out of this was, all the way from the end of 2022, ChatGPT was launched. Everyone uses it every day, or now Gemini is becoming quite popular.
Josh Robb:
Gemini is popular.
Austin Wilson:
Mr. Samsung...
Josh Robb:
And Google, yes.
Austin Wilson:
...Google guy, but yeah, AI, innovation, growth. The question is, does the AI theme... Some people call it a bubble. I'm not willing to say that yet. Does the AI theme have more room to run?
Josh Robb:
I think so. I think, again, you've mentioned it, is you had, in the tech area, the first expansion from this new technology. And now it's seeping into other areas, manufacturing. There's other spots that are saying, "Hey, we could take and utilize this technology for our own benefits."
Austin Wilson:
Totally.
Josh Robb:
And you're seeing it ripple through other areas. And I think that's where you're going to see most of the growth is tech companies have already started to price in everything they can do.
Austin Wilson:
Oh, yeah.
Josh Robb:
Yeah. Yeah, yeah, but you're going to get that ripple effect where other people are asking and demanding more need and use, which will help those tech companies still. But in general, it's going to be the manufacturers and distributors and those areas where you've said, "Hey, we can innovate and make this more efficient."
Austin Wilson:
Yeah. Oh, yeah.
Josh Robb:
And I think that's where you're going to see most of it.
Austin Wilson:
So, it's like you read my paper before I... We really didn't.
Josh Robb:
It's like you've told me this...
Austin Wilson:
It's like I've told you this before. No, my thought was, does the AI theme have room to run? Yes, but it's more from the next level, is what I think. So, first level that you think of, when you think of tech, when you think of AI, is NVIDIA. It's the chips. It's Broadcom. It's AMD. It's all these AI chip manufacturers.
Well, then, like you said, they are pretty much... How much more growth could be priced into what they're going to do? It's not. They are capped out. Their capacity is capped out, for that matter. They can't even make anymore.
But what's the next level that's going to lead that theme higher? It's going to be the picks and shovels, is what I call it. This is the things that are implementing and that are the infrastructure behind AI. And that's where I think hardware, data centers-
Josh Robb:
Logistics.
Austin Wilson:
... logistics, servers.
Josh Robb:
Yep.
[19:42] - Investment Trends & Top Performers
Austin Wilson:
These sort of things are going to be where the next leg is higher.
So, the market leaders, what's going to perform best? What's going to perform worst? I think that it's going to be a broadening theme in 2026. And I probably said this last year, if anybody would have asked me, and it didn't work out. And there's some things that they don't work out that way, but I do think that we're going to have that broadening theme. And I think that you're probably going to have decent returns from a lot of these AI leaders, but I think, if you're looking for what's going to do best, it's going to be some of these catch-up plays, things that have gotten left behind and things that are supporting the AI team.
And what's going to perform worst? Well, it's a couple interesting things that could do poorly. There's a lot of risk in the consumer. The high-end consumer is doing very well, the low-end consumer is not, but the valuations are so bad on those, or attractive in terms of beat down, that they actually could do okay.
It's really hard to find something that can perform the worst, but it's really what could do the least good because I think we're kind of in a Goldilocks environment right now. I don't know. That's a tough one to call.
Josh Robb:
I wrote down for doing well, and this is something that came from you, but financials. If the Fed does continue to cut rates-
Austin Wilson:
Steepening yield curve.
Josh Robb:
... and then the change in the yield curve, I think financials are poised to do well, especially like insurance. There's a lot of areas, not just traditional banks, that I think financials are one. And then on the other end, I think if you're going to have to pick it, tech, to me, is the one that's just valuations make it hard for them to have a third year in a row of just such good runs.
Austin Wilson:
Yeah, I agree.
Josh Robb:
So, I don't, necessarily... think they're going to do bad-
Austin Wilson:
Correct.
Josh Robb:
... but not do as well as some others.
Austin Wilson:
My weakest sector, if I was to pick a sector, would probably be materials. That ties into my lower inflation theme. Material companies typically do very well when inflation is high.
Josh Robb:
Okay.
Austin Wilson:
It's a cost plus kind of business. So, as they can increase their prices as their commodity prices go up, but commodities are down, so their margins are going to be down. And inflation is low, so their ability to increase prices is going to be lower. So, that's going to be my-
Josh Robb:
That's it, yeah.
Austin Wilson:
... laggard sector. Asset classes.
Josh Robb:
Yeah. So, outside of just talking sectors... yep.
Austin Wilson:
Fixed income, what do you think about bonds?
Josh Robb:
And again, this goes more to where we were going to close, but I'll do it here, is long-term growth. We talked about, what do you do as a long-term investor? Ignore the short-term volatility. How do you grow your money long-term? Equities. Historically speaking, equities are the best asset class to not only beat inflation, but give you the best purchasing power down the road. Has the most volatility because of that.
Austin Wilson:
Totally. Totally.
Josh Robb:
It's trade-off. There's always a trade-off.
Austin Wilson:
Yep.
Josh Robb:
If I want to take more risk, I should expect more return. Fixed income's place in a portfolio is to dampen the short-term volatility, and you do so if you need money in that interim short period of time, so for retirees, those type of people.
So, fixed income, again, if interest rates are coming down, fixed income usually does well. There's less concerns about fixed income at this point. Not a lot of any kind of... Like you see municipals aren't... You're just not seeing a lot of bonds struggling, and I think they'll do well.
But where do they fit? That's the bigger question. And that's the one, to me, it's like, only if you don't or cannot stomach the long-term volatility do you incorporate fixed income in?
Austin Wilson:
Oh, yeah. It's never going to be the growing piece of your portfolio. That's not what it's designed to do. When I think of fixed income, I think of the term. I think that the 10-year, for example, is what everyone looks at probably most for fixed income yields. I think that that is going to be relatively choppy, but sideways throughout the year. And you're going to have the short end coming down, the long end staying elevated. So, really what you're going to get is an offsetting. The price is going to not be where you get your return in fixed income. It's going to be clip the coupon. Right now you're getting 4.2%.
Josh Robb:
Right, that's the income. Yeah.
Austin Wilson:
4.2% for the ag, 4.2% for the 10-year treasury. It's probably what you're going to get. It's four-ish percent for fixed income.
Josh Robb:
Which-
Austin Wilson:
That's what it's for.
Josh Robb:
... historically-
Austin Wilson:
Clip the coupon.
Josh Robb:
... the last... that's above the long-term-
Austin Wilson:
It is.
Josh Robb:
... inflation number, where we're thinking inflation will be, so you're going to net positive out of that.
Austin Wilson:
Yep. So, I think bonds are going to be about 4% for the year.
Josh Robb:
Commodities?
Austin Wilson:
Commodities is an interesting one. Oil, obviously, is in the doldrums. It's just beat down. It's just-
Josh Robb:
Gas prices are good.
Austin Wilson:
Which is great for gas. I filled up for -
Josh Robb:
Wow, that's good.
Austin Wilson:
... the other day.
Josh Robb:
Yes.
Austin Wilson:
Two cars, I think, because I was like, "I got to do this."
Josh Robb:
I think I got to get the other car and bring it in.
Austin Wilson:
Yeah, that's right. But gas prices, because of all the oil, we have so much supply. We, and the rest of the world, for that matter, OPEC generating and drilling for and producing so much oil that it's going to keep a cap on prices. So, I think that that's going to, A, that could be a tail or a headwind for energy prices in terms of the sector, which I'm not super bearish on because I think a lot of that's priced in, but I also think that that is going to keep... Just the price of oil is going to continue to remain pretty low.
Gold and silver is what everyone's asking about right now.
Josh Robb:
Oh, yeah. I just-
Austin Wilson:
Huge moves.
Josh Robb:
... get those questions, also.
Austin Wilson:
Biggest winners of 2025, right?
Josh Robb:
Yeah.
Austin Wilson:
I think that they're going to be negative.
Josh Robb:
You think it'll be down?
Austin Wilson:
Gold and silver will be negative. It's hard to see gold doing... And I don't think it's a perfect hedge, but gold sometimes does well when inflation is higher. Inflation is coming down. So, it's hard to get super excited about buying gold when inflation is on the way down. And yeah, people like to talk about central banks and geopolitics, but I think after the massive run in 2025, both gold and silver are down.
Bitcoin is your wildcard.
Josh Robb:
Yeah. Well, I was going to say, though, before we get to that-
Austin Wilson:
Oh, yeah.
Josh Robb:
... do you think... And this is a good question for you. Sorry to put you on the spot.
Austin Wilson:
Put me on the spot.
Josh Robb:
With chips, there's a lot of precious metals that go into-
Austin Wilson:
True.
Josh Robb:
... chip making.
Austin Wilson:
Silver specifically-
Josh Robb:
Yes.
Austin Wilson:
... some gold.
Josh Robb:
So, do you think that's going to help cushion some of that by a new or a higher demand source for it? Because again, part of precious metals is it's limited quantity.
Austin Wilson:
True.
Josh Robb:
You only have so much.
Austin Wilson:
I would say that would come more on the silver side of things than the gold. Gold is used some in manufacturing, but it's not used a whole lot.
Josh Robb:
Not near as much.
Austin Wilson:
Silver is used quite a bit, but I also think a lot of that is already priced down.
Josh Robb:
Okay.
Austin Wilson:
So, that's where I think you get one whiff of bad news, silver could fall double digits easily.
Josh Robb:
Okay.
Austin Wilson:
I'm kind of bearish on that, and then Bitcoin is the wild card. It's not a commodity, but it's a... We're going to put it in that bucket, alt, whatever you want to call it.
Josh Robb:
Yes. Collectibles.
Austin Wilson:
I'm not even going to put a guess on it. Okay, I will put a guess on it.
Josh Robb:
Yes.
Austin Wilson:
I think it'll be negative from its 80 some thousand dollar level, but it's-
Josh Robb:
Yes.
Austin Wilson:
... going to be all over the place. It hit 120.
Josh Robb:
It hit like 100, right?
Austin Wilson:
120.
Josh Robb:
- So, you don't think it's going to get back to all-time highs?
Austin Wilson:
I think 2027, maybe, not 2026.
Josh Robb:
Okay.
Austin Wilson:
What are your thoughts on those classes?
Josh Robb:
Yeah, precious metals, that's a hard one because there's that sense of securities people have with precious metals, gold, silver.
Austin Wilson:
Right or wrong.
Josh Robb:
... you can collect and store it somewhere, and it's there. There is some truth to it in that there has, historically, always been a demand for it, so there, it does hold value. It fluctuates, it's hard to get rid of, all the negatives. But I do think that if we do get some volatility, you're going to see-
Austin Wilson:
Oh, yeah.
Josh Robb:
... them... Especially since the prices are good, people continue to flock that direction. So, I think volatility will factor into that.
Austin Wilson:
True.
Josh Robb:
I don't think it's going to do nearly as well as it did this year.
Austin Wilson:
It was gangbusters-
Josh Robb:
Yes.
Austin Wilson:
... in 2025.
Josh Robb:
And then Bitcoin, I think the key to this one will be regulation. If there's some good regulation that comes out, and by good, I mean more broad appeal for that, you're going to get more stability. Not since, necessarily, big runs, but more stability, less huge swings, which will then, for the long-term investor, make it little bit more appealing to start adding to your portfolio. Again, SEC, still it's not regulated security.
Austin Wilson:
It's not security, right.
Josh Robb:
So, at this point, it's still not part of that, but if it, at some point, gets there, then you're going to start seeing it adopted. When it gets adopted, you're going to smooth some of that out, which I think, in the long run, will help them.
Austin Wilson:
So, that brings me to equities.
Josh Robb:
Yes.
Austin Wilson:
I believe, but I'm data-backed, by the way.
Josh Robb:
Data-backed, okay.
Austin Wilson:
This is just using averages.
Josh Robb:
Okay. Where are you at? Show me.
Austin Wilson:
S&P 500, after years like this year-
Josh Robb:
Yes?
Austin Wilson:
... has given an average of 11.8% the year after.
Josh Robb:
Okay, double-digits.
Austin Wilson:
So, I'm saying 7,700-
Josh Robb:
Okay.
Austin Wilson:
... for the S&P. And the Dow, based on history, about 11%. So, that would put it at about 53.5.
Josh Robb:
Okay.
Austin Wilson:
I didn't have a Nasdaq guess, but those are my two guesses-
Josh Robb:
Those are the two -
Austin Wilson:
What about yours?
Josh Robb:
So S&P 500 I had at 7,200-
Austin Wilson:
Okay.
Josh Robb:
... which is roughly a 6% return from where we're at. And then I did an 8% return for the Dow-
Austin Wilson:
Okay.
Josh Robb:
... thinking that when we talk about the difference between those tech names and the rest-
Austin Wilson:
Little bit of a claw back. Yeah.
Josh Robb:
... I had that difference there. So, 5,200, and these are just rounded, but about an 8% return there. So, that was where I was sitting, six and eight.
Austin Wilson:
So, we just finished equities. We finished fixed income. We talked about commodities. We kind of have some ideas of our thoughts on what's-
Josh Robb:
Yes.
Austin Wilson:
... going to happen in 2026, but let's talk about what to do. Because it's easy to put a bunch of numbers out there and say what we think assets are going to do, but-
Josh Robb:
And these are not predictions. These are things that you should do.
Austin Wilson:
Yeah, these are things we-
Josh Robb:
These are-
Austin Wilson:
These are recommendations.
Josh Robb:
... actions. Yes.
Austin Wilson:
Those were not recommendations.
Josh Robb:
Yeah, these-
[29:04] - What to Do in Response to Headlines
Austin Wilson:
Those are opinions and thoughts. These are actions. These are recommendations. So, what should people do heading into 2026?
Josh Robb:
Yeah. The first thing is... And this is not a 2026 thing. This is-
Austin Wilson:
This is evergreen.
Josh Robb:
Yeah, this is just straight ignore the headlines, stick to your long-term plan. So, you created a plan for getting to your goals. Don't let the scary headlines in the short-term disrupt what your plan was long-term. When do you adjust your plan? When things change on where you want to go or how you're going to get there.
Austin Wilson:
Oh, yeah.
Josh Robb:
So, job change, things like that, that's when you need to review your plan, not just because something on the news shows up. So, that's the difference. Ignore the headlines.
That plan, by the way, does need looked at periodically.
Austin Wilson:
True.
Josh Robb:
Is my savings rate still the same? You're not changing and reacting because of the environment. You're changing or adjusting based on your circumstance.
Austin Wilson:
So, that having a good plan, which is where we would obviously recommend working with someone professional, working with an advisor who knows and has a whole plan laid out for you that has really been tested through any scenario that the market can throw their way, that's really going to help an investor have a lot of confidence.
Josh Robb:
Yes.
Austin Wilson:
Who knows what's going to happen this year? Because you know what I do know? All those predictions I just gave you, I would say that most of them are going to be very wrong. And most of yours are going to be very wrong.
Josh Robb:
Oh, very wrong.
Austin Wilson:
And most of every single financial professional's estimates are going to be wrong. And that's just the nature of predictions. Because what we do know, what we can be certain about is that uncertainty will prevail. Something is going to happen this year that we can't predict.
Josh Robb:
Yes.
Austin Wilson:
And that's okay because-
Josh Robb:
Yeah.
Austin Wilson:
That's happened every year forever.
Josh Robb:
I mean, if we go back and look at our episode, we did not predict COVID.
Austin Wilson:
Right. That's true. Yeah.
Josh Robb:
That was a big surprise. We didn't predict the drawdown and the high inflation in 2022. Those things will happen. And in the end, you stick to your plan, and you're going to end up where you need to be, if you have a good plan and you follow the things you need to do.
Austin Wilson:
You can make little changes along-
Josh Robb:
Yes.
Austin Wilson:
... the way, but your long term plan is going to be intact. So, yeah, talk to your advisor. Double-check, make sure... This is a great reminder that going into a new year, look at your asset allocation, look at your overall needs for return, and risk profile and everything, and make sure that that's in check. And then...
Josh Robb:
Savings rate.
Austin Wilson:
Savings rate, yeah.
Josh Robb:
Make sure your-
Austin Wilson:
Then delete the app.
Josh Robb:
Yeah, and then just be...
Austin Wilson:
Because again, like you said, the noise is going to be there. The news is going to be there. I'm not going to stop watching the news.
Josh Robb:
No.
Austin Wilson:
But they should.
Josh Robb:
Well, or when you watch it, just understand-
Austin Wilson:
Yeah, it doesn't matter.
Josh Robb:
... it's good to know what is go on, but it should not change your long-term perspective.
Austin Wilson:
Absolutely. So, thank you for listening. Those are our very wrong estimates.
Josh Robb:
Best guess we have.
Austin Wilson:
Have. Best guess we've got for 2026, but thank you for listening. If this episode was insightful for you, hit that subscribe button on whatever podcast player you're listening to, so you don't miss an episode when they drop. Be sure to follow us on social media. You can put your estimates of what's going to happen in 2026 in the comments on those. We'd love to hear from you.
And then if you're ready to find out what we do at Hixon Zuercher Capital Management, we think we're pretty cool, we do some pretty unique stuff here, head to hzcapital.com and check that out. And you can get show notes and free resources like the Timeless Principles of Investing at thewealthmindsetshow.com. Otherwise, thanks for listening, and we'll see you next episode.
Josh Robb:
Yep, we'll talk to you later.
Thank you for joining us at The Wealth Mindset Show, where we tackle the complexities of finance and life planning to help you align your wealth with your values. We hope today's conversation provided value and clarity as you navigate your financial journey.
Your hosts work for Hixon Zuercher Capital Management, and all opinions expressed by them or any podcast guest are solely their own and do not reflect the opinions of Hixon Zuercher Capital Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for investment decisions.
Clients of Hixon Zuercher Capital Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. There is no guarantee that statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment, and any investor attempting to mimic index performance would incur fees and expenses that could reduce returns. Securities investing involves risks, including the potential loss of principle, and there is no assurance that any investment plan or strategy will be successful.
